Don’t Chase the Future. Stay and Shape It.

UPDATE: An abbreviated excerpt of this piece was published by Indie Agency News on May 5, 2026.

Author’s Note

I recently had the privilege of delivering the keynote address at the AAF District 10 Next Wave Awards Luncheon in Dallas, Texas – an event focused on recognizing emerging talent across our region and reflecting on where this industry is headed next.

As I prepared, I found myself coming back to a set of conversations that have been building for a while now. Within our agency, with our partners, and more broadly across the marketing and advertising landscape. Conversations about change. Pressure. Uncertainty. But also, considered another way, about opportunity to grow.

As you might imagine, I spend most of my time as Chief Development Officer of a mid-size independent agency thinking about growth. Helping brands grow. Helping our people grow. Helping our agency grow. And not just growing bigger, but growing better. Living out our agency mission to pay the most attention. To our people, our partners, our community. To the work. And to the world around us. Getting better and stronger through healthy, sustainable growth. That’s the kind of growth I get most excited about.

I’ve always had a tendency toward optimism. Not the naive kind that assumes everything will work out, but the belief that when things are changing, there is usually more opportunity, not less. And I get it. Optimism isn’t always easy. It’s not always popular either. But I’ve found that it can be one of the most productive ways to move toward whatever opportunity is out there.

What follows is a written adaptation of my talk. A perspective on the key shifts that I believe may offer a more optimistic view of where our industry could be headed, and why the next wave of opportunity may actually be closer than we think.

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When I first started in advertising in Texas about 20 years ago, the advice was pretty simple:

If you want to make it, leave. Head to New York. Chicago. San Francisco. Just get to one of the big cities. Start at a big agency. Work on a big brand. And be sure to jump around every couple years.

That’s where the opportunity was. That’s where the best work was. That’s how careers were made.

I didn’t do that.

I stayed in Dallas. I didn’t jump around. I actually stayed at one agency that entire time. I did get to work with some big brands along the way but spent most of my career with small and mid-size challenger brands. Companies trying to grow, compete, and punch above their weight.

If I’m being honest, there were moments when I wondered whether I was making a mistake. Maybe I should be headed to the coast and padding my resume with bigger brands. Maybe I was limiting my trajectory.

Today though, I believe the opposite is true. If you’re building a career in advertising today in mid-America, I think there’s a strong case to be made that you may be in precisely the right place at the right time. Because I see a handful of shifts that, when combined, paint a perhaps more optimistic picture of what the future could be.

The Shift to Mid-America

For decades, this industry has had some clear centers of gravity in a handful of coastal cities where the biggest brands lived and the biggest agencies operated. But over the past 10 years or so, that opportunity has been spreading to new markets.

Take Dallas-Fort Worth for example. Since 2010, the DFW metro has grown over 30%. A 2022 Freakonomics podcast episode titled “Why is Everyone Moving to Dallas” suggested it is on pace to overtake Chicago as the 3rd largest metro within the next decade (Source). At the same time, of the 561 U.S. corporate headquarters that have relocated since 2018, nearly half have landed in Texas (Source). Companies like Tesla, Toyota, KFC, and Charles Schwab.

And this isn’t just a Dallas story. It’s happening across the country and throughout mid-America. The markets historically considered as those centers of gravity for industry are the same ones experiencing the greatest losses in corporate headquarters: from New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles. In favor of, yes, Dallas, but also markets like Austin, Nashville, Phoenix, Houston, and Denver (Source). Markets growing faster, attracting talent, and increasingly shaping the direction of business in our country. And opportunity tends to follow where people are going, where companies are investing, and where decisions are being made.

Additionally, as growth shifts to new parts of the country, so does relevance. Mid-America becomes no longer a niche market, but in many cases, it is the market. And the marketers that live here too, understand that customer. They’re simply closer physically and culturally to the broad middle of the country so many brands are trying to reach.

So, for a long time, the implication was: If you want to be close to opportunity, you move to it. Now though, more of that opportunity is moving to more of us.

The Shift to Mid-Market

Another assumption was that the most important brands were the biggest ones.

And while big brands do benefit from their size and scale, some of the most interesting growth is happening in the middle. Mid-size brands, and mid-size agencies, for that matter. Challengers. Not the biggest, but the ones built to grow.

A recent Bain report looking at insurgent brands in the CPG category found that 36% of the category growth came from the challengers that collectively represent less than 2% of market share (Source). These are the brands that simply have to grow. And when they pair that hunger with smart marketing, they are able to look and perform far beyond their size.

Interestingly, this shift applies to agencies too. Because for a long time, the assumption there was similar: serious brands hire big agencies. And for some companies, that’s still right. But that model is also under pressure right now with consolidation across holding companies. Mergers. Layoffs. Restructuring.

And when we, a mid-size agency, talk to mid-size brands, we hear a few consistent themes: They want clarity, not complexity. Access instead of layers. They don’t want a pitch team that hands them off; they want their team. Beyond size, they want partners who can move at the speed of their business. It’s no wonder the majority of agencies on the most recent AdAge agency A-list are mid-size and independents.

As Mollie Rosen of the 4As noted in a recent Wall Street Journal article discussing the opportunity today for midwestern agencies: “A lot of things are now fair game for whoever has the best solution, vs. who’s got the scale.” (Source)

In short, the center of gravity is spreading to the middle. Right where the advantage lives for many of us.

The Shift to Effectiveness

More good news: we know more today than ever before about how marketing and advertising actually work. Because for most of the history of this industry, we really didn’t.

We had instincts. Opinions. Frameworks. But a lot of it is now just debunked theories. And to be fair, they came from experience. From what felt true.

But it also resulted in a number of pretty confronting stats: 84% of what’s out there isn’t memorable enough to matter (Source). 6 of 7 digital impressions don’t pass the attention-memory threshold (Source). And at best estimate, the cost of dull advertising is around $189B (Source).

Thankfully, we now have a real body of evidence for marketing effectiveness. From groups like the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute and the IPA. And great thinkers like Byron Sharp, Les Binet, James Hurman, Karen Nelson-Field, and so many more. Together, their collective work offers something we’ve never really had before: A map.

And through the work, a few principles start to become clear: Brands grow by being remembered by more people – reaching more buyers and building memory. Doing so when it matters most – being closely associated with the triggers that move someone into market – those category entry points. Looking unmistakably like you – really using your distinctive assets to reinforce consistent and cohesive attribution at every interaction. And appearing bigger than you actually are – wielding whatever investment and resources available to you to achieve an excess share of voice.

We have a map. And if you’re coming into this industry right now, that’s an advantage. Because you don’t have to spend years learning and then unlearning things that don’t hold up. You can start, with a better foundation. A clearer sense of what matters and where to focus.

The Shift to Human-Centered AI

Earlier this year, we hosted an event at TRG called Rage With the Machines bringing together creatives, strategists, technologists – people actually working with AI every day. And one idea kept coming up throughout the session: While AI is incredibly powerful, it is most powerful when humans stay firmly in the loop. Only when combined do we truly see a fundamental expansion of what’s possible.

But when everyone has access to the same tools, the advantage doesn’t come from the tools themselves. Particularly in the case of AI. Because when applied to creativity, AI tends to optimize towards the average. And average is exactly where brands disappear.

Ideas start to look more similar. Strategies start to sound more alike. Outputs converge toward what’s expected, what’s safe, what’s statistically likely. So, while AI lowers the cost of some things, it simultaneously raises the value of others. Namely, judgment, and taste, and the ability to decide things like: what actually matters? What signals do we trust? And what’s true to the brand?

It raises the value of that human spark.

As the barrier to execution drops, the ceiling for ambition can also rise. Yes, we should use our new tools responsibly. But more importantly, we should use them ambitiously. To raise the overall quality of the work. Not raging against the machines. But raging with them.

The Shift to Value

And finally, the business of our business is changing. Because for a long time, agencies have been paid in a way that doesn’t really reflect the value we create.

We’ve often sold time. Hours. Headcount. FTEs. Staffing plans. Which made a certain kind of sense in a more labor-based world. But it makes a lot less sense in a world where technology is making great teams faster and more efficient. Because if the commercial model says you get paid for how long things take, then getting better can actually make you worth less. And that is a broken incentive.

More broadly, it creates a disconnect between what brands want and what agencies are rewarded for. The old model based on time often rewards activity. Busy-ness. Whereas brands are really more interested in outputs, which incentivize solutions – and outcomes which incentive performance. People like Michael Farmer and Tim Williams have been talking about this for years.

Time is simply a bad proxy for value. If you charge for time, efficiency is a threat. If you charge for value, efficiency becomes an advantage. The opportunity is to better align our business with the value we create. Understanding both how to make great work – and why it matters. With the confidence to stand behind what that’s worth.

So, this is where it all comes together.

Opportunity is shifting to our market. The most exciting brands are winning in the middle. We know more than ever about what actually works. Technology is increasing possibilities across the system. And the commercial model is evolving to lead with value.

Wielded appropriately, these shifts have the power to help our agency grow – bigger and better. And I believe they have the power to also create more opportunity for agencies, brands, and creative people across the country.

Together, these shifts suggest to me a future with a greater emphasis on accountability. And independence. On creativity that works. And opportunity that shows up in new places for more people.

So, if you’re building your advertising career today in mid-America, you don’t have to leave. You don’t have to jump around if you’ve found a place and a team that you love. You don’t have to chase the biggest brands if you’re doing meaningful work that fills you up.

If you’ve found a path that works for you, follow it. With the optimism that the future isn’t something we have to chase. It’s something we get to shape.